Turquoise value is driven by four documented factors: condition (natural versus treated — only about 15 percent of world production is hard enough to use untreated, per Lowry), color, matrix character, and above all the mine it came from. The corpus is explicit that source is the most influential rarity in a stone's value — classic-mine stones outsell look-alikes from lesser-known deposits.
Scarcity is the foundation. Lowry defines the baseline: "Natural turquoise is a rare gemstone," with the phrase reserved for "the rare 15 percent of the world's turquoise production that is hard enough to grind, shape, and polish," while "An average of 85 percent of the total mining production of turquoise yields turquoise that is too soft to shape or carve and will not accept a high polish." (Lowry, Turquoise: The World Story, ~lines 9871–9884) Chambless and Ryan, working from the mining side, estimate that of the material that needs no treatment, "perhaps only the top 5 percent" is considered high-grade, and conclude that natural untreated high-grade turquoise is among the rarest of all gemstones, "certainly far above diamonds." (Chambless & Ryan, Turquoise in America, ~lines 10508–10515) That pyramid — most production too soft, a thin natural layer, a sliver of gem grade — is the whole economics of the stone.
Condition: natural versus treated. Because most mined turquoise cannot be cut untreated, the market runs on stabilized and otherwise processed stone. Treatment is legitimate when disclosed, but it occupies a different value tier than natural stone, and hardness alone will not sort them: Lowry notes usable natural turquoise runs about 4 to 6.5 on the Mohs scale while "Most processed and treated turquoise range in hardness of a 4 and a 5," making condition "difficult to identify... by hardness." (Lowry, ~lines 5605–5611) The full treatment taxonomy — stabilizing, waxing, dyeing, reconstitution — is documented on Natural vs. Stabilized Turquoise, and the outright fakes on Imitations and Fakes.
Color and matrix: two grading traditions. Lowry describes the two systems that govern taste: "The most well known tradition of grading turquoise is the Persian system, which defines the best grade as a stone with perfect clarity and the deepest blue color. The American system defines the best grade as a stone that is from one of the most famous and rare mines that has a" good blue color with spiderweb matrix. (Lowry, ~lines 9247–9253) In other words, a clean sky-blue stone and a tight golden-spiderweb stone can both be top grade — under different flags. See color grading and the matrix guide for the details, including the documented practice of darkening pale matrix with dye — one reason matrix should be examined, not assumed. (Lowry, ~lines 8806–8816)
Mine provenance: the biggest lever. Lowry is unambiguous: "The most influential rarity of a turquoise's value is where a specific turquoise was mined," naming Number Eight, Bisbee, Lander Blue, and Lone Mountain among the "brand name" sources, and adding that "Turquoise collected from the classic mines is generally more valuable than turquoise from lesser-known mines that may produce a similar color and matrix." (Lowry, ~lines 9364–9374) The same look is worth more with the right pedigree — which is why provenance and its documentation get their own page: Turquoise Mine Provenance: Why It Matters.
Stability over time matters too. Lowry notes the stone nearest the matrix is most prone to color change, and that a stone's density determines how susceptible it is to color shift from skin oils and other substances (Lowry, ~lines 8942–8956); Rosnek adds dryly that low-grade turquoise "has a tendency to fade." (Rosnek & Stacey 1976) Dense, high-grade stone holds its color — another reason grade compounds value rather than merely decorating it.
Provenance in depth: Why the Mine Matters. Treatments: Natural vs. Stabilized. Grading: Color · Matrix. The stone itself: Turquoise. Whole-piece appraisal: Is My Turquoise Jewelry Valuable? Browse documented natural turquoise at tskies.com →